Post by Rick C Post by bitrex Post by bitrex
A real Marxist would be uninterested in what car any particular person
drives; whether they drive a zero-emissions luxury Tesla that makes them
feel good about saving the Earth or an F-450 that gets 4 mpg, or whether
they use paper or plastic at the store because the glossy sign tells
them it's better to use paper. It's of no interest to them. "Fuck the
machines, we want the machines that are making them" is an expression.
But since I would be unlikely to be a very good Marxist by any measure I
will continue to drive my "budget"-priced not-electric, not-gas sedan
like the snob I am. or whatever.
Whenever people talk about driving a Tesla because they want to "virtue signal" or whatever, I realize they have never driven a Tesla, not in a meaningful way. I'm looking at relocation to Puerto Rico and I was thinking I'd leave the car here, but transporting the car is not that much money. It's a nice car in so many ways. By the time the Harleys can't find a gas station within range EVs will be under $20,000 and the fuel savings will be enough that no one can afford to drive an ICE.
What makes you think anyone will ever make an EV under 20k for domestic
sale? The low end of the market particularly cars is a thankless job and
margins are thin.
That is such a silly thing to say. If it's so terrible, why would anyone make low end cars at all? Simple, that's where the volume is. Very few car companies make only high end cars. For every $50,000 car sold there are a lot more $20,000 cars sold. Right now people are buying $35-$40,000 cars because there are none in the US at $20,000.
Post by bitrex
Aside from some brands like Mitsubishi and Daewoo and some of the
Chinese and Indian producers for purchase in those countries that's a
market segment everyone else want to get out of, not get into. New car
prices for cutting-edge cars go _up_, they don't go _down_.
Again, rather silly thing to say. It's very easy to get out of a car market, just stop making those cars!
You totally miss the point. In even just 5 years, EVs won't be "cutting edge" anymore and it will be about price points. In 10 years batteries will have advanced enough that an EV will be cheaper than an ICE for anything other than the lowest priced cars and the cost of operating an EV will more than make up for that easily.
That is the point where there are so few ICE left on the roads that half the gas stations will have turned into ice cream parlors or 7-11s. I would really like to be in the room when the big chain gas stations are planning their futures.
What I'm really wondering about is if this transition will be like the impact of quartz digital devices on the watch market. It didn't take long at all for the Swiss to lose dominance in the watch market. Something similar could happen with EVs where some automakers simply can't make the transition and fade away.
BTW, it is just plain silly to think the low end EV cost is going to rise in the next 40 years unless there is some major disaster affecting a vital resource. EVs will continue to drop in price for the foreseeable future.
"There is also evidence that suggests the price gap between electric
cars and gas-powered cars is closing even more. According to Quartz, the
average cost of a new car in June 2019 in the U.S. was $36,600. This was
a 2% increase from the year before. However, according to data from Cox
Automotive, the average cost of an electric vehicle decreased from
$64,300 to $55,600: a 13.4% decrease from the year before. And this drop
would be even more pronounced if most manufacturers were not still
focusing on making luxury electric vehicles."
I think it's a big leap to extrapolate 64k down to 55k, to 55k down to 35k.
Cuz I think the reason most manufacturers are focusing on luxury EVs is
they don't see that much money to be made at the low end, at least not
for first-world sale. So long as gas prices stay relatively low the
financial motivation isn't there, and Americans buy cars as much on
image as they do on pragmatism; the market for bare-bones cars is small
outside of fleets. A $25,000 EV is going to have significant compromises
made to hit that price point no way around it.